04 January 2010

Use This Flowchart To Figure Out Whether Your Emerging Market Will Experience A Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2010

Sovereign debt crises 2010, an RBS sapling

Interested in risky emerging markets, but spooked out about the sovereign credit meltdown that everyone's talking about?

RBS (via Alphaville) has produced an flowchart to determine, using various national criteria, whether a given country is at risk of a meltdown.

Basically, it starts at the top and divides countries into two camps -- those with external debt above and below 50% debt to GDP. Then it looks at other criteria, such as the inflation rate and the volume of external reserves.

Keep going down the flowchart, and you can see where each country is.


Note that Azerbaijan is not mentioned as a possible problem at all.

Click to read full FT article.


flowchart diagram

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